Assumptions IntroductionCertain assumptions are implicit, and not always obvious, in all of
the methods for predicting future growth. Some were mentioned in the
sections describing the methods, and others are mentioned here.
The validity and accuracy of these methods depend on the validity of
the assumptions on which they are based. The surgeon about to perform
leg length surgery should be aware of how these assumptions might apply
to the method he is using and to the patient under consideration. It
is reasonable to question the assumptions.
Does our growth data reflect normal growth?It is a common finding that comparing our patients to the Boston Growth
Study data results in more patients appearing to be of tall growth percentiles
than of short when one would expect equal numbers above and below the
mean. More than expected actually fall more than two standard deviations
above the mean.
This may be due to the fact that those data are based, to some extent,
on x-rays of the longer leg of polio patients. It is likely that in
may of those patients the longer leg was also affected by the disease
and thus was shorter than normal. If that was the case it would result
in a bias of their data and the findings noted above.
In any case, even if their data describe a population with shorter
legs than normal, it will not lead to errors in the context of leg length
discrepancy as long as the pattern of growth (the proportion of adult
length achieved relative to skeletal maturation) is normal.
Do all children share the same pattern of growth?The Boston Growth Study documents the relationship between leg length
and skeletal age. It was performed on the patient population of one
hospital in Boston without regard to racial or other differences.
Others may be more interested in the relationship
between chronological growth and height; and others in that between
skeletal and chronological ages.
It is possible that patients of different races, or even different
genetic stock within the same race, have patterns of growth different
from that described by that study. If that is the case, then errors
might be anticipated in the prediction of growth based on that study.
It is common practice, however, to use the data from the Boston Growth
Study irrespective of race, and there have been no reports of errors
due to race or other population characteristics.
Is skeletal age assessment reliable?The assessment of skeletal age is the weak link in the prediction of
future growth because our measurement methodology is so crude. There
is even another concern, however, and that is with respect to the validity
of the method. The various authors who have developed methods for the
assessment of skeletal age have done so with somewhat different goals
and with different methodology. Which method is most appropriate in
the context of leg length prediction is unclear. We can take some comfort,
however, from the fact that if we use the Greulich and Pyle method we
are at least using the method that the Boston Growth Study used in correlating
leg length with skeletal age.
We tend to think of skeletal age as an attribute
of a patient. It is probably more useful to think of it as the result
of a method applied to his x-rays, something like the result of a
laboratory test.
We also know that ossification of the cartilage models of bones, and
therefore skeletal age, depends on the health, nutrition and medication
of the patient. These are variables that change with time, sometimes
under our control and sometimes not. Growth in length of the long bones
may also be affected, but perhaps not be affected in the same way, and
therefore apparent skeletal age may not be a good indicator in patients
with active disease, nutritional deficiencies, or who are taking medication.
Patients with hypothyroidism, for example, can be greatly delayed in
apparent skeletal age, and may advance very rapidly under replacement
medication.
Is growth inhibition constant?Predicting future growth and the future of leg length discrepancy depends
on knowing what the growth inhibition will be in the future. One study
has shown that in a sample of patients with varying diagnoses the relative
growth of the two legs was constant with a linear regression coefficient
of greater than 0.995 in every case. This means that we can be fairly
confident that growth inhibition remains constant throughout growth.
We can also safely assume that the inhibition in the future will be
the same as that in the past.
Are measurements of leg length accurate?The accuracy and validity of all analyses of leg length, including
that performed by Pedipod/LLD, depend upon the accuracy of leg length
data. Such data are subject to variations in x-ray technique and errors
in interpretation of the x-rays.
Whatever x-ray technique is used, it should be consistent. Mixing x-rays
with a magnification factor with those without will give erroneous ideas
about the pattern of growth.
In addition to measurements of length, Pedipod/LLD depends, in certain
circumstances, on the measurement of the amount of lengthening achieved
by a surgical procedure. This measurement is subject to magnification
and poorly defined landmarks, and can be a source of error.
Do we know the pre-operative status?Pedipod/LLD needs to know the leg lengths immediately prior to surgery,
otherwise it has no starting point to predict the effects of that surgery.
It is always wise, in clinical practice, to measure leg lengths and
skeletal age accurately before surgery.
Pedipod/LLD assumes that the data entered for the last assessment prior
to the surgery represents the situation at the time of surgery, regardless
of the relative dates. A warning or comment will be given if the date
of that assessment precedes the surgery by more than thirty days. This
assumption is important for the Straight Line Graph, but plays no part
in the Menelaus method which is only used prior to surgery in the timing
of epiphysiodesis.
Pedipod/LLD pays almost no other attention
to calendar dates since it is skeletal time and not calendar time
that is important in this context.
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